I'D BE CAREFUL ABOUT THIS – AT 3:26 P.M. ET:   In every election cycle we have the "New Jersey story," and it is always the same:  Will this be the year that New Jersey, one of the bluest of the blue states, surprises us and goes red?  And then New Jersey votes blue.  But this year something is intriguing is happening late in the race.  From Fox: 

New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez's once-comfortable lead over Republican Bob Hugin has narrowed in recent polls amid withering attacks over his ethics challenges and personal controversies, and now one rating outfit has shifted the Senate race into the "toss-up" column.

Cook Political Report, reflecting how unexpectedly competitive the contest has become, announced Friday it is moving the race from "lean Democratic" to "toss-up."

“The contest isn’t about anything else but Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez and his ethics problems,” Cook Political Report’s Jennifer Duffy wrote, noting wealthy pharmaceutical exec Hugin has outspent the incumbent by nearly 3-1, with much of that going toward brutal TV ads.

The imbalance, and potential risk for Menendez, has led a major Senate Democratic super PAC to jump in with its own multimillion-dollar ad buys.

COMMENT:  Other polls put the race in the Dem column.  Maybe Cook knows something the others don't know. 

Menendez has an ethics problem.  In New Jersey that's like having the sniffles.  In the end, I think he'll pull it out, unfortunately.

October 26, 2018